In 2025, a powerful shift is unfolding in global finance. With public markets caught in the crosshairs of U.S. tariff uncertainty, geopolitical recalibrations, and the amplifying effects of algorithmic trading, institutional investors are pivoting sharply toward private capital in search of stability and strategic control.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has consistently hovered above its historical average of 20, reflecting an atmosphere of sustained investor unease. After a steep 10% correction earlier this year, the S&P 500’s rebound lacked durability, echoing pandemic-era volatility without a clear roadmap to recovery.
“While this turbulence may resemble past downturns, the underlying forces are fundamentally different,” says Joey Petelle, CEO of Sentinel Crest, a firm specializing in complex capital solutions and cross-border M&A. “Global relationships that once underpinned market stability are fracturing—and the investment community is reacting in real time.”
Rapid and unpredictable tariff policy shifts have reshaped global trade norms. Once used sparingly, tariffs are now a constant wildcard, disrupting supply chains and investor confidence. As Petelle puts it, “It’s like trusting the same mechanic for years, then getting blindsided with triple the cost in an emergency. You pay once, maybe twice, but never a third time.” Multinational corporations, once confident in their long-term expansion plans, are now freezing capital expenditures and reevaluating supply networks.
This new landscape has been further distorted by the rise of algorithmic trading, which now drives nearly 60% of U.S. equity volume. These systems react to news in milliseconds, often triggering massive price swings based on sentiment rather than fundamentals. “Algorithms don’t pause to ask why a stock dipped—they sell, and others follow,” Petelle explains. “The result is momentum-driven chaos.”
Meanwhile, private markets are emerging as a bastion of strategic calm. Free from daily headline noise and automated selloffs, private companies operate on fundamentals—cash flow, operational strength, and long-term vision. Sectors like advanced manufacturing, healthcare, SaaS, and consulting are thriving under this model.
“In private markets, we’re not just avoiding risk—we’re building uncorrelated value,” says Petelle. Sentinel Crest, for instance, has seen a surge in deal flow, with a wave of take-private transactions across fintech, enterprise software, and industrial innovation. Their valuation model discounts short-term disruption and focuses on enduring financial resilience.
Institutional investors are following suit. Asset allocators are increasing exposure to direct private equity, delaying IPOs, and funneling capital into venture funds targeting supply chain localization and other resilient themes. With IPO activity virtually frozen, the narrative is clear: public markets are reacting, but private markets are creating.
This isn’t a short-term defensive play—it’s a long-term realignment. The gravity of investment strategy is shifting from public spectacle to private substance.